Ken Rapoza followed the herd to
online investing two years ago when the bulls were running.
He set up a $5,000 cash account with
an online broker, and started clicking. Each month, he bought more
stock in two companies that he considered hot: California-based
electric utility Calpine Corp. and telecommunications powerhouse
WorldCom Inc.
You can guess the rest. Calpine stock
is off about 90 percent from two years ago. WorldCom filed for
bankruptcy in July. That $5,000? Rapoza's latest cash account
balance was $1.27, and his stock portfolio was worth a whopping
$229.51.
Like many other small investors now
chastened by the numbers, Rapoza, 34, of Westport, Mass., has taken
a seat on the sidelines.
"It's roulette, man,"
Rapoza said. He said he has not made a trade in months and does not
know when he'll get back in the market.
Recent years have seen stock trading,
banking, credit-card applications, insurance and loan shopping gain
major footholds with Internet users. But online investing, which
roared into the new century as a killer application for the
Internet, lately has slumped like a dog on the Dow.
Although online brokerage firms are
still adding accounts, many have lost significant commission income
because investors overall were trading stocks online at the end of
June about half as often as they did two years ago, according to
market research firm Gomez Inc.
As a result, online brokers, along
with data-crunching Web sites and Internet-based financial advisers,
are scrambling to find niches to fill, adding services and
information for customers more interested in preserving what's left
of their fortunes than in trading their way to quick riches.
"We have had to add a number of
services," said Rodger Riney, president of discount online
broker Scottrade, which now promotes its 160 bricks-and-mortar
branches and a real-time Web news feed from Dow Jones - along with
its $7 trades. "We felt like we had to do some things like that
to continue to make our site what we feel is the best value."
When stocks were rising, making
trades "almost became a form of entertainment to people,"
said Ian Rubin, an industry analyst at the market research firm IDC.
"They purchased something, and it was exciting to go and check
your portfolio every few hours."
But Dan Burke, an industry analyst at
Gomez, said that, with the easy-money days over, "investors are
going, 'OK, now I have to figure out what stock to pick.' And that's
why, now, the online and the discount brokers need to step up and
provide... the tools to make those decisions.
"Financial planning is kind of
the new battleground," he said.
At E-Trade Group Inc., where banking,
mortgage lending, stock-plan administration, and an ATM network have
taken up much of the slack from declining stock trades,
"diversification strategy is what has carried us through this
whole process," spokeswoman Connie Dotson said.
Some sites that cater to niche
audiences, such as day traders or stock-options traders, say they
are flourishing.
Stock-option trading site
OptionsXpress.com is doing brisk business, with 20,000 accounts held
by frequent traders, company president David Kalt said.
"By focusing on our niche...
we're a success story in what would be perceived as definitely not
such a great market for online trading," Kalt said.
One of his customers agreed.
"They wouldn't get hurt because the whole beauty of options is
that it really makes no difference which way the market is
going," said Hal Fliegelman, a Lafayette Hill, Pa., lawyer who
uses the site to make 15 to 20 trades a month.
E-Trade's recent acquisition of the
Tradescape day-trading service has helped win niche users to
E-Trade's generally "holistic" market approach, Dotson
said.
Yet when it comes to offering
financial alternatives to stocks, the Web often presents as many
obstacles as solutions. Many transactions for real estate, insurance
and loans, for example, can be started online but must still be
completed offline, on paper.
Bonds, with their arcane terminology,
rate schedules and payoff dates, are another tough sell on the Web,
Rubin, the IDC analyst, said. "Banks don't do a great job of
offering bonds online," he said.
The future of online trading remains
as uncertain as the financial markets overall.
"People were trading a lot when
stocks were going up, plain and simple," said Andrew Metrick, a
professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania. "Generally, there's this sense that, if you are
trading and making money, you are doing something right, and if you
are trading and losing, you are doing something wrong."
Yet a slowdown is not bad for
investors, according to Metrick. Studies that he and others did
during the bull market showed that investors who trade online
"trade a lot more, and do a lot worse" in the markets,
Metrick said.
"It's just a way to eat up your
time and money for no good reason," he said.
Leland B. Hevner, president of the
National Association of Online Investors in Washington, said so much
information and opportunity online "can be dangerous if you
don't know what you're doing with it."
Hevner's group offers online learning
material for investors - to show, for example, how to find and
decipher proxy statements of public companies.
Hevner picked Microsoft Corp.'s
MoneyCentral.msn.com as a site where, by answering questions about
their goals, inexperienced investors can be guided to appropriate
investment options. Other sites he picked were www.morningstar. com,
Quicken.com, and the Motley Fool site, www.fool.com.
However, he said advice gleaned from
the best of Web sites should not be considered on its own. Investors
ought to find a trusted off-line financial adviser, and "online
resources should be used to empower people to interact more
intelligently with their adviser," he said.
"The adviser is coming back into
vogue," said Bryan M. Place, a financial planner and columnist
for the financial advice site www.MultexInvestor. com. "Two
years ago, people didn't want to have to look at anybody or talk to
anybody. They just wanted to execute a trade at the lowest price
possible. Now, they want advice."
That may be, but Hevner said he
expects the decline in online trading to continue until Wall Street
turns positive again. "There's just so much uncertainty in the
market," he said. "People just don't know where to turn at
this point."